Bavariance

Research

We build the infrastructure to measure how event markets trade, and to test forecasts and trading software against them. Our work runs on our own data and ships in PolySimulator.

Order-book capture Live

Since 30 July 2026 we record Polymarket's full order-book feed ourselves, on the order of 100 million updates an hour, with settlement reference prices alongside.

Fill fidelity Research

We measure simulated fills against what the real order book would have given the same order, and work on closing the difference.

Point-in-time replay In development

A replay engine that sees only what existed at each moment, and refuses to fill against data it does not have.

Trading API and Python SDK Live

The API and SDK behind PolySimulator follow the venue's official client, so software written for the real market can be pointed at the simulator.

Research engagements

We take on research engagements on prediction-market infrastructure: resolution, oracle economics, execution and capacity. Get in touch.